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Economist gazes into crystal ball Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Agri News staff writer
OWATONNA, Minn. -- Minnesota policymakers made the tough decision to invest in education nearly half a century ago.
That decision put Minnesota on the right path, said state economist Tom Stinson, but it doesn't mean leaders can rest on their laurels or that the state couldn't have done better.
In some ways, their decision may have been easier than today's choices, Stinson said, speaking at the "U and Your Economy'' Workshop last week in Owatonna.
Baby boomers were the largest segment of society and they needed education. Now that they are nearing retirement age , more changes for Minnesota and the nation can be expected.
Government priorities will likely shift with the baby boomers to issues associated with aging.
Western Minnesota counties, particularly those near the South and North Dakota borders, are already coping with issues surrounding an aging population, Stinson said. They are talking about long-term care, health care and senior housing.
Stinson says he tells metro area people to look west to see what will eventually happen statewide.
Raising taxes won't be any easier as more people edge closer to retirement, he said. As baby boomers age and retire, they tend to become fiscal conservatives.
Boomers will pay less income tax after they retire, but likely won't want to pay more in other forms of taxes.
There will be fewer people entering the work force, making retraining more important than ever to ensure a productive work force.
Health care costs will continue to rise, but there is hope that researchers will come up with effective treatments for Alzheimer's or strokes to reduce the need for expensive long-term care.
At the same time, Stinson predicts Minnesota's households will be wealthier. By 2014, Stinson said real, per capita disposable income will increase by $6,700 or 27 percent.
"We, as a society, will have the money to do whatever we want," he said. "The question is how are we going to spend that?" Certainly, some of that money will go to health care.
As people age they tend to spend more time at the doctor's office, which will be a special challenge for the public sector because it tends to have an older work force than the private sector. |
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